Hurricane Central
Hurricane Danger For Florida, Gulf Coast; Alerts Issued Along Southwest FL Coast
By Jonathan Erdman
3 hours ago
- A tropical system is strengthening in the western Caribbean Sea.
- It is likely to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast Thursday.
- The hurricane could be strong at landfall with life-threatening storm surge, high winds and heavy rain.
- Impacts could push well inland in parts of the South into Friday.
A tropical system is strengthening in the western Caribbean Sea, and it is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before it strikes Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week as 2024’s eighth named storm, Helene.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor this situation closely, stay updated on how the forecast unfolds in the days ahead and have their hurricane plans ready to go.
(MORE: Map Tracker)
Watches and warnings issued: Tropical alerts have been issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Greater Antilles, and Florida.
This means tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in these areas within the next 36-48 hours.
Where it is right now: A strengthening tropical cyclone is in the western Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms are gradually becoming more organized in this area.
The storm was dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, a procedure NHC uses to issue watches and warnings ahead a tropical depression or storm forming, on Monday morning.
Here is the timeline:
- Tuesday: The storm is expected to near Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba as a named storm, Helene, at either tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane intensity. Locally heavy rain, strong wind gusts and storm surge flooding are possible in those areas. Parts of western Cuba could pick up 12 inches of rain or more.
- Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba, especially early. We then expect Helene to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands could reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
- Thursday: Despite some remaining uncertainty in the forecast, Helene is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane Thursday afternoon or evening. While computer forecast models suggest the most likely location for a landfall is somewhere from Florida’s Big Bend to the Panhandle, remember that hurricane impacts (surge, winds, rain) often happen far from the center. There are still a few computer ensemble model forecasts with tracks as far east as Florida’s West Coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. So, everyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast for any possible changes ahead.
- Friday: This system is most likely to push inland quickly with some lingering strong wind gusts and locally flooding rain over parts of the Southeast.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Current Storm Status And Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
)
How strong could it become: Helene is forecasted to reach major hurricane intensity in the Gulf ahead of landfall.
That’s because heat content is one favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Gulf of Mexico heat content is at record high levels for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
(This map shows areas of not only warm water, but warm, deep water that is one ingredient to fuel developing and active tropical cyclones.)
But it’s not just warm water.
Forecast models suggest upper level winds could spread apart over Helene, which is favorable for strengthening, instead of shearing and tilting Helene’s circulation.
For those reasons, Helene could reach at least Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before landfall.
U.S. rainfall potential: While it’s too soon for specifics on other impacts – including storm surge and winds – we expect Helene to produce heavy rainfall generally along and to the east of its track.
The heaviest rain is expected Thursday into Friday in parts of the Southeast, but some bands of heavy rain could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could lead to flash flooding, especially where it combines with storm surge and over higher terrain.
Rainfall Outlook
(While not all of the rainfall shown above is from this tropical system, this should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
