The college football rankings don’t always need outright upsets to see changes and shakeups. After the Week 3 action, voters in the AP Top 25 poll have plenty to consider when filling out their updated ballots. From an upset scare for No. 1 Georgia all the way to a stunning score from a Notre Dame team who had fallen the week prior, a day that lacked upsets still provided plenty of surprises.
It was a week that featured eight ranked teams hitting the road to play unranked opponents in hostile territory, with four of those matchups being the renewal of in-state rivalries. And while several of those unranked home underdogs did their best to create chaos, the favorites escaped in every scenario. In fact, the only losses for ranked teams came in the only two ranked-on-ranked matchups from the weekend with No. 20 Arizona losing to No. 14 Kansas State and No. 24 Boston College falling at No. 6 Missouri.
But that’s not to say that what we saw from those ranked teams getting tested won’t result in some changes in the rankings.
The AP Top 25 poll voters are going to have more questions about whether Georgia is in fact the No. 1 team in the country after the Bulldogs narrowly defeated Kentucky on the road. Last week’s voting tally had 54 of 63 first-place votes going to Georgia, and it’s likely that a few of those (if not more) will change their mind and opt for Texas, Ohio State or maybe even Alabama after the Crimson Tide rolled Wisconsin in Madison.
Voters will also have to consider how to react to Oregon’s best performance of the season so far, a bounce-back win for Notre Dame, the close calls for Missouri and LSU and so much more. Some of these fluctuations in voting points will lead to changes in the rankings and set the tone for where these teams stand and conference play begins to dominate the college football schedule in the coming weeks.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look after Week 3 results:
1. Georgia (Last week — 1): We are likely to see a few first-place votes drift away from Georgia after such a close call on a big stage at Kentucky. The Bulldogs made such a strong statement in their season-opening win against Clemson that their status as the top dogs seemed infallible, but beating Kentucky by such a narrow margin has sparked a debate regarding the best team in college football.
2. Texas (2): An injury for Quinn Ewers has brought some big-picture questions to the forefront for Texas internally, especially in the wake of Arch Manning’s five-touchdown performance, but the only thing of concern to AP voters is how the Longhorns now have an even stronger case for No. 1 following a 56-7 win against UTSA that
3. Ohio State (3): The Buckeyes were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against Marshall.
4. Alabama (4): There will be a surge of support for Alabama after the Crimson Tide rolled Wisconsin, but given the sizable gap in last week’s voting, there won’t be enough momentum to jump Ohio State. The changes will likely be with Alabama’s ranking floor as 10 voters had the Tide outside of the top five with a low ranking of No. 10 on one ballot. That should change after Saturday’s big road win and solidify Alabama’s position at No. 4.
5. Ole Miss (5): No big moves expected for Ole Miss, but a 40-6 win at Wake Forest keeps the momentum going in the right direction for a group that’s expecting to be a contender for championships this fall. All three of the Rebels’ wins have included at least 40 points scored, and no Ole Miss opponent has scored a touchdown yet this season.
6. Tennessee (7): We still have a few weeks until spooky season really takes hold but the Vols are scary good. Through three weeks, Tennessee’s offense has been firing on all cylinders and it’s never trailed through 180 minutes of football. The toughest games on Tennessee’s schedule are coming up, including a road trip to Oklahoma in Week 4 and the traditional October date with Alabama, but it’s impossible to be unimpressed with what the Vols have done so far in 2024.
7. Oregon (9): The Ducks finally showed something close to the form that so many AP voters were expecting when they placed Oregon at No. 3 in the preseason poll. Dan Lanning’s group had dropped spots in the rankings after each of its first two wins, and we’re projecting they’ll make some of that ground back with a quick return of support from those voters who were growing frustrated with results that fell short of expectations.
8. Missouri (6): After outscoring its first two opponents 89-0, Missouri faced its first real challenge of the season in Week 3 and delivered mixed results that could lead to a shake up within the top 10. The offense took a while to catch its stride and the Tigers were never able to put Boston College away in what amounted to a 27-21 win as a three-score favorite. Both Tennessee and Oregon were close enough in voting points that the Tigers could give up a couple spots despite improving to 3-0 with the win.
9. Penn State (8): The Nittany Lions were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against Kent State.
10. Miami (10): On a day with close calls and some tense moments throughout the top 25, Miami left absolutely no doubt in a 62-0 romp of Ball State.
11. USC (11): The Trojans were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday at Michigan.
12. Utah (12): Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson threw three touchdowns in place of Cam Rising (injured hand) and the Utes overcame an early deficit before pulling away late in a 17-point win against in-state rival Utah State.
13. Oklahoma State (13): It was good to see Oklahoma State understand the assignment in a road trip to face in-state foe Tulsa. The Cowboys jumped out to a 28-0 first-half lead and never looked back in a 45-10 win highlighted by 396 passing yards and five touchdowns from seventh-year senior quarterback Alan Bowman.
14. Kansas State (14): Arguably the most impressive win of the week might have come from Kansas State, who welcomed a challenge from a top-20 team on Friday night in Arizona and ran off 31 unanswered points after allowing the Wildcats to score a touchdown on the first possession of the game. There’s not a lot of room to move up in the rankings, but there will be more voter support for Kansas State as a top-15 team after 16 voters had the Wildcats outside the top 15 last week.
15. Oklahoma (15): After a much-needed fast start from the Sooners, Tulane was able to climb back into the game and cut the deficit to just five points in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. But Jackson Arnold stepped up with his legs and delivered one of his two rushing touchdowns to put the game out of reach and secure a 3-0 start for Oklahoma.
16. Notre Dame (18): Just when you thought Notre Dame was going to fall out of the picture, the Fighting Irish dropped 66 points on Purdue in an offensive explosion that few can claim they saw coming. It’s just enough of a statement in a bounce-back spot to earn some confidence back from the voter who dropped Notre Dame 13 spots after last week’s stunning upset loss to Northern Illinois.
17. LSU (16): The Tigers showed a ton of resiliency in storming back from a 17-0 first half deficit to snatch the victory away from an upset-minded South Carolina squad in Columbia. It was a sloppy game for both sides, but LSU delivered more key plays late to escape with a 36-33 win.
18. Michigan (17): The biggest storyline coming out of Michigan’s 28-18 win against Arkansas State is the quarterback conundrum facing the Wolverines as they prepare to open Big Ten play against USC next week. Davis Warren was benched after three interceptions, and Alex Orji finished the game leading a ground-heavy attack that racked up 301 yards in the win. Orji only threw four passes, though one was for a touchdown, and Sherrone Moore said this week in practice will determine who gets the start for next week’s Big Ten opener.
19. Louisville (19): The Cardinals were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against Georgia Tech.
20. Iowa State (21): The Cyclones were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against Arkansas State.
21. Clemson (22): The Tigers were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against NC State.
22. Nebraska (23): No big changes in the rankings after a solid, take-care-of-business win against FCS Northern Iowa. Up next is a Friday night showdown against Illinois, who could break into the rankings after also improving to 3-0.
23. Northern Illinois (25): The Huskies were off in Week 3 and will be back in action next Saturday against Buffalo.
24. Illinois (NR): This won’t be as much of a push into the top 25 based on a 30-9 win against Central Michigan as much as a recognition of Illinois’ rankings profile. Last week’s win against Kansas had the Fighting Illini up to 26th in voting points, so with some teams falling out, I expect Illinois to get the bump.
25. Texas A&M (NR): The Aggies were still on some ballots last week as a 1-1 team with the only victory coming against FCS McNeese State. After beating Florida in The Swamp and making a quarterback change along the way, Texas A&M will get more looks as a team in the 20s and has a good chance to move into the top 25.
Projected to drop out: No. 20 Arizona, No. 24 Boston College
