- Fasua was mostly appropriate that the size of Nigeria’s economy is larger than $180 billion, with updated statistics on account of this truth backing him.
- His claims on poverty levels, Nigeria’s finances per capita compared to other countries, financial savings from petroleum products imports and other indicators of wealth are either unproven on incorrect.
- Come up Recordsdata TV host Rufai Oseni was appropriate that the finances efficiency is low, but incorrect in announcing wrong oil exports declined by 50% correct thru the last yr.
In a July 2025 dialogue on Come up Recordsdata TV, Tope Fasua, economic adviser to Nigeria’s president, called for a larger national finances to sort out power poverty and put money into infrastructure, urging the nation to “reimagine” itself.
To dangle his case, Fasua pointed to shifts in Nigeria’s valuable oil trade, changes within the industrial structure and a recent rebasing of the defective domestic product (GDP) .
We examined public data to peep how one of the most most headline economic claims he made on air stack up.
Fasua acknowledged that Nigeria was heading in direction of zero wrong oil exports and fewer sophisticated product imports, claiming petroleum imports fell to “$10 billion” in 2024, saving “$15 billion”. Whereas he didn’t specify the currency within the interview, he has been reported elsewhere making a identical claim in US dollars.
However Central Financial institution of Nigeria (CBN) data tells a definite myth. Its 2024 annual steadiness of payments document confirmed petroleum imports fell from US$18.3 billion in 2023 to $14.1 billion in 2024.
This is a low cost of about $4.25 billion, not $15 billion. Imports additionally did not descend to $10 billion. We price the claim as incorrect. – Catherine Adeniyi
Fasua acknowledged 130 million Nigerians lived in multidimensional poverty, a measure that goes beyond earnings to consist of deprivations in successfully being, training and dwelling standards.
The World Financial institution defines it as a “pronounced deprivation in well-being”. Its most modern data confirmed 74 million Nigerians were multidimensionally dreadful in 2024.
Nigeria’s data tells varied myth
The 130 million figure doubtless comes from Nigeria’s first national multidimensional poverty index, revealed by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics in 2022.
In conserving with surveys from unimaginative 2021 to early 2022, it measured 15 indicators all the design in which thru four areas: successfully being, training, dwelling standards and employment.
The ensuing index realized 133 million Nigerians were multidimensionally dreadful, compared to 82.9 million dwelling in earnings-based fully poverty (not as much as N137,430 per person per yr) in 2019.
The NBS acknowledged the 2 measures captured varied aspects of poverty and were complementary, but the figures were not straight similar on account of they got here from varied years, as well to to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prof Uche Isiugo-Abanihe, a demography expert on the College of Ibadan in western Nigeria, steered Africa Check the 2022 figure was outdated. He cited recent policies much like the controversial removal of the gasoline subsidy, rising inflation and better dwelling charges as drivers of swap.
“[So] any figure given now is speculative, because government social policies and interventions since then could have changed the numbers, we may have either lower or higher numbers, we never know unless another survey is conducted,” Isiugo-Abanihe acknowledged.
He added that while there were social cash transfer programmes, “in my opinion, these monies are like a drop in the ocean”. – Catherine Adeniyi
Whereas arguing for a larger 2026 finances, Fasua claimed that Nigeria’s finances allocation per person was amongst the area’s lowest, but offered no data to toughen this.
“Budget per capita is the total budget in a year divided by the total population, and usually that will give you an indication of what the government is spending per individual,” acknowledged Prof Olasupo Alege of Covenant College in western Nigeria.
On the opposite hand, there would possibly be not any unswerving global rating for this. As a substitute, institutions love the World Financial institution classify countries by earnings level: low, lower-center, better-center and high-earnings, mainly for diagnosis and comparability.
Nigeria falls within the lower-center-earnings class. To take a look at Fasua’s claim, we compared its finances per capita with other countries within the identical earnings neighborhood and with trim populations.
In 2024, Nigeria’s finances per capita was $83.6, far beneath Pakistan ($270), Bangladesh ($397.2), India ($397.4), Egypt ($733.1), Indonesia ($745.4) and the Philippines ($869).
Alege acknowledged such comparisons were finest genuine between identical economies, cautioning against evaluating countries love Nigeria and the US, which had very varied earnings sources and finances techniques.
Whereas data shows Nigeria’s finances per capita is lower than many other lower-center-earnings countries, the dearth of a definitive global rating formula results can fluctuate reckoning on which countries are included.
We on account of this truth price the claim as unproven. – Catherine Adeniyi
And not using a unswerving global rating for finances per capita to confirm this claim, we broken-down public data to overview Nigeria with four other trim African countries of identical or lower earnings level.
We converted their 2019 budgets to US dollars the usage of every nation’s alternate price on the time.
Egypt ranked absolute best, at $805.9, adopted by Tanzania, at $211. Nigeria placed third with $124.9, old to Ethiopia ($100.8) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo ($57.5).
Alege acknowledged comparisons within Africa were genuine, but needed to be made in moderation. He acknowledged that “even if you come to Africa, you have to be very careful, the economy of South Africa is more buoyant than our own economy, there are so many things that do not put us in the same basket”.
This diagnosis shows it’s imaginable better than one other nation has a lower finances per capita than Nigeria, but on account of this tremendously depends on which components are even handed as,, we price the claim as unproven. – Catherine Adeniyi
Fasua claimed Nigeria’s economy was price not not as much as $350 billion, not the $188 billion earlier reported by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics for 2024.
Two days later, the NBS launched that, after rebasing the economy – altering the heart-broken yr from 2010 to 2019 – Nigeria’s defective domestic product (GDP) was N372.9 trillion (about $244 billion) in 2024.
The rebasing aimed to construct a more fine image of the economy’s dimension and structure and to take dangle of emerging sectors.
The updated numbers ended up supporting Fasua’s argument that the economy was grand better than recorded on the time, even when his estimate overshot the original quantity by better than $100 billion. – Allwell Okpi
This claim stems from Fasua’s defence of his estimate that Nigeria’s economy was price not not as much as $350 billion. He argued that Nigeria’s cattle population by myself was price N30 trillion ($19.6 billion) and contributed to that figure.
Fasua acknowledged the nation had about 30 million cattle and, at an life like attach of N1 million every, their complete price would be N30 trillion.
However available data puts the cattle population closer to 20 million.
The Centre for Supporting Proof-Primarily based fully Intervention in Livestock estimated 16.58 million in 2020, while 2025 Meals and Agriculture Group data put the figure at 20.91 million in 2023.
Detrimental calculation
It was incorrect to calculate GDP by merely multiplying the attach of a cow by the need of cows, Baba Musa, head of national accounts on the NBS, steered Africa Check.
“GDP is the value of all goods and services in a year. However, calculating it is not that straightforward. A lot goes into the calculation. We utilise global standards and best practices, ensuring Nigeria’s GDP is comparable to that of other countries.”
In conserving with Musa, this included:
- The plot of national accounts – an internationally agreed remarkable for measuring economic economic roar.
- The Worldwide Long-established Industrial Classification and the Central Product Classification – for categorising based fully on their traits and nature.
The Provide and Expend Table, which tracks the origin of issues and companies and products and the design in which they are broken-down. – Allwell Okpi
Fasua argued that, beyond statistics, lifestyles was bettering for Nigerians, pointing to a recent doubling of oil prices, which he acknowledged benefitted sellers.
Palm oil is a reddish suitable for eating oil from the oil palm fruit, widely grown in southern Nigeria and other tropical areas in West and Central Africa, Southeast Asia and South The united states.
Nigeria is the fifth-biggest producer after Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Colombia.
A Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Overview document shows palm oil prices rose by 101.2% in 2024, from N1.17 million per ton in April to N2.47 million in December, based fully on impart and national averages.
The document linked the upward push to components much like offer and ask, production charges, authorities policies, seasonality, global market traits, alternate price changes and total inflation.
Join free AllAfrica Newsletters
Accumulate the most modern in African data delivered straight to your inbox
Nigeria imports about half of of the 2 million an complete bunch palm oil it consumes yearly.
Costs fell correct thru the first 5 months of 2025, then climbed in Could also merely after Indonesia, the area’s top producer, raised its export tax from 7.5% to 10%.
Fasua’s claim holds appropriate for 2024, when prices doubled, but data for the first seven months of 2025 would not toughen a recent doubling. – Allwell Okpi
BONUS CLAIMS
Fasua’s Come up Recordsdata TV host, Rufai Oseni, additionally weighed in with claims of his contain, and we regarded at two.
Nigeria produces millions of barrels of wrong oil day after day but exports most of it unrefined, relying carefully on imported sophisticated products to satisfy domestic gasoline wants.
Whereas introducing the attach, Oseni acknowledged Nigeria’s wrong oil exports had fallen by half of, attributing this claim to Fasua, who did not dispute it. Fasua had additionally been quoted by Come up TV earlier as making the identical assertion.
On the opposite hand, NBS data tells a definite myth. Its international trade in items statistics document shows right growth in wrong oil exports all the design in which thru 2024 compared to 2023.
Overall, wrong oil exports almost doubled in price between 2023 and 2024, from N29.5 billion to N57.2 billion, and made up for 72.4% of Nigeria’s complete export earnings in 2024.
– Catherine Adeniyi
Nigeria is for the time being working three budgets without delay thanks to dreadful finances efficiency.
In January 2025, federal lawmakers rated the 2024 finances’s total efficiency at 43%. Whereas recurrent spending reached 100%, it was finest 25% for capital expenditure.
The senate extended the closing date for the 2024 capital finances, first to June 2025, then December.
That identical month, successfully being minister Muhammed Ali Pate acknowledged appropriate 15.06% of his ministry’s 2024 capital finances had been released and spent, or “serviced”. – Allwell Okpi
