By Inés M. Pousadela*
In Would possibly well merely 2025, Tanzanian security forces stripped Ugandan activist Agather Atuhaire naked, raped her and smeared her with excrement whereas they filmed her ordeal, seemingly to disgrace her into silence. Her crime: getting into the nation alongside fellow activist Boniface Mwangi from Kenya to support the politically motivated trial of opposition chief Tundu Lissu. Mwangi, arrested alongside her, used to be additionally subjected to torture . They delight in been sooner or later dumped come the border.
This brutality ought to tranquil shock the world into recognising the truth of Tanzania under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who took space of job in 2021 with eloquent promises of reconciliation and democratic renewal following the death of authoritarian president John Magufuli. Four years later, every democratic produce made since 2021 has been dismantled. As an October frequent election approaches, Hassan is exhibiting herself to be now not a reformist alternative to Magufuli’s authoritarianism nevertheless a more polished successor: one who makes affirm of the language of democracy to legitimise increasingly more brutal repression .
Illusion of change
In 2022, Time magazine named Hassan as one of the 100 most influential of us of the year. This praise conveniently unnoticed that fact she’d been elected and re-elected on the linked Birthday party of the Revolution (CCM) label as Magufuli in rigged elections, been a key share of his administration and benefited from the plot that had saved the CCM in vitality for over half a century.
But Hassan’s early presidency looked to value a right departure from her predecessor’s concepts. She championed ‘ the four Rs ’: reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding. In January 2023, she lifted a 2016 ban on political rallies , allowed banned media to resume operations, launched imprisoned opposition leaders and region up a task power on political reform including civil society, media and political representatives. Hassan sought to strengthen the industry climate, re-engaged with worldwide partners and adopted a more pragmatic system to COVID-19, in appealing incompatibility with Magufuli’s refusal to answer to the pandemic.
Nonetheless, this liberalisation proved superficial and immediate-lived. By early 2024, reforms had stalled. Many restrictive regulations remained in space, and as the nation approached the most important local elections, Hassan decisively returned to repressive tactics from the broken-down CCM playbook.
Single-celebration hegemony
Tanzania’s democracy has continually been constrained, its political plot dominated by the CCM since independence in 1961. The CCM’s vitality derives now not beautiful from organisational energy and helpful resource advantages, nevertheless additionally from its manipulation of electoral processes . This used to ensure in 2020’s not seemingly election results, which saw the increasingly more unpopular Magufuli re-elected with over 84 per cent of the vote. Tactics included tight adjust of the election administration physique, systematic exclusion of opposition candidates, deployment of security forces in opposition to opposition supporters, voter intimidation and pollstuffing. Opposition parties delight in been constrained by regulations empowering the executive to interfere with their registration, funding, inside of operations, advocacy and coalition formation.
The exclaim turned into more authoritarian when Magufuli took the helm in 2015, the affirm of increasingly more frightening measures to silence critics, including banning political rallies, shutting down media shops and targeting civil society organisations. His crackdown prolonged beyond veteran opposition figures to embody activists, journalists and anybody who dared criticise executive insurance policies. So when Hassan succeeded Magufuli upon his death, of us hoped for change.
Intensifying crackdown
Hassan’s veil slipped sooner than November 2024 local elections. In August, police detained 375 individuals and supporters of the foremost opposition celebration, the Birthday party for Democracy and Growth (CHADEMA), including Lissu and celebration chair Freeman Mbowe. This crackdown used to be precipitated by CHADEMA’s referencing of early life-led protests in neighbouring Kenya , with authorities banning a deliberate Worldwide Formative years Day celebration. Authorities arrested five media workers alongside opposition individuals.
This used to be adopted by a wave of enforced disappearances and centered killings of opposition activists. In September, senior CHADEMA member Ali Mohamed Kibao used to be abducted and stumbled on unimaginative the following day with evidence of severe beating and acid burns. Social media commentator Edgar Mwakabela used to be equally abducted, tortured, shot in the jaw and dumped in Katavi National Park; fortunately, he survived. At the least three other opposition individuals went missing.
As vote casting approached, the executive launched a scientific assault on media freedoms, blocking off nationwide procure admission to to Twitter/X in August and physically assaulting journalists overlaying banned protests. In October, authorities suspended three foremost online info shops for 30 days after The Citizen printed an provocative video featuring a personality similar to Hassan searching at coverage of abductions.
Portrait artist Shadrack Chaula used to be convicted and fined for ‘insulting’ Hassan in a TikTok video, then disappeared for a month after his open. Academic freedom used to be constrained, with scholars self-censoring due to regulations criminalising disputing executive statistics. Civil society organisations confronted growing restrictions , including deregistration and moral harassment.
These actions created a climate of dismay that neutered opposition. When local elections delight in been held, well-known competition used to be impossible, and to no one’s shock, the CCM gained over 98 per cent of seats.
Democracy denied
With local elections secured, Hassan moved to save away with any doable scenario in the frequent election. In April, a court docket charged Lissu with treason – which carries the death penalty – for allegedly inciting riot whereas calling for electoral reforms. After CHADEMA refused to model an electoral code of habits without total reforms, the election physique banned it from all elections till 2030, getting rid of the exclusively credible scenario to CCM rule.
On the linked day they abducted Atuhaire and Mwangi, authorities detained veteran Kenyan Justice Minister Martha Karua on her arrival at Dar es Salaam airport to support Lissu’s trial, and then deported her. This targeting of international political figures demonstrates the executive’s growing self assurance that brutal repression carries no consequences.
The worldwide community’s response has been shamefully muted. While worldwide civil society organisations and United Nations human rights experts delight in condemned violations and referred to as for investigations, governments delight in accomplished nearly nothing. Their silence can exclusively embolden Hassan, and authoritarians around the world.
The upcoming frequent election isn’t beautiful another vote: it’s a take a look at of whether the worldwide community will stand by as Tanzania becomes a totally authoritarian exclaim.
*CIVICUS Senior Analysis Specialist, co-director and author for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the Declare of Civil Society File .
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