Sports Mole previews Friday’s League of Ireland Premier clash between St Patrick’s Athletic and Drogheda United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
As both sides fight to gain ground in the League of Ireland Premier title race, St Patrick’s Athletic are set to host Drogheda United at Richmond Park on Friday.
Saints will be looking to record back-to-back wins for the first time since March, while United will be hoping to return to winning ways after dropping two points last time out.
Match preview
Stephen Kenny‘s St Patrick’s have fallen behind their Premier Division rivals after winning just three of their seven matches in May, losing three and drawing the other, making this week’s six-pointer all the more important.
Saints closed out last month with a 1-0 victory over bottom-of-the-table Sligo Rovers, and while they took maximum points, the former Irish national team coach would have been concerned that his players only scored from the spot against the league’s leakiest defence.
Regardless, that triumph lifted Kenny’s side up to fourth in the table, where their 29-point tally has them just one behind Bohemians and Drogheda, and seven shy of leaders Shamrock Rovers.
As they aim to reduce the deficit, the hosts will take confidence from their impressive home record that has seen them go unbeaten at Richmond Park across all competitions for more than a full calendar year, though with just two wins from their last five on their own turf, it remains to be seen whether they can capitalise on their resilience this time around.
A ninth win of the league season could be enough to see St Patrick’s climb up to second place, though defeat would allow Shelbourne and Derry City to drop them down to sixth in a worst-case scenario.
Meanwhile, Kevin Doherty‘s Drogheda are currently on a four-game unbeaten streak, but with one win, three draws and one loss from their last five, it would be fair to say that they are in less-than-stellar form.
Before the international break, United followed up their commendable 1-0 victory against Bohemians with a disappointing 2-2 stalemate against eighth-placed Waterford, though the manager will have been encouraged by the spirit his team showed to come from behind twice to take a point.
That draw has Doherty’s men second with 30 points ahead of this week’s clash, and allowed the Hoops to extend their lead at the top of the pile to six.
To make matters worse, the visitors struggled on the road throughout May, and having drawn three and lost two of their five most recent away games, fans would be forgiven for having doubts about their team’s chances against St Patrick’s.
A first travelling win since April 11 could give Drogheda a psychological boost in the title race if the gap is reduced to three points, but a more likely defeat would put them at risk of falling out of the Conference League playoff spots.
St Patrick’s Athletic League of Ireland Premier form:
Drogheda United League of Ireland Premier form:
Team News
St Patrick’s were not at their best offensively against Sligo Rovers, and striker Aidan Keena, who scored the only goal of that game from the spot, will be hoping to fire his team to an important three points on Friday.
Supporting the frontman will be wingers Zachary Elbouzedi and Simon Power, along with full-backs Ryan McLaughlin and Anthony Breslin, who will be offering overlapping runs.
As for Drogheda, they will be without right-sided defender Elicha Ahui after he was sent off against Waterford, and are also anticipated to be missing James Bolger.
As a result, expect to see George Cooper join Conor Keeley and Andrew Quinn in a back three, with Owen Lambe and Conor Kane acting as wing-backs.
Elsewhere, midfielder Shane Farrell was taken off with an injury last time out, and Doherty may have to deploy Darragh Markey in a deeper area than usual alongside Luke Heeney, with Ryan Brennan and Paul Doyle likely unavailable.
St Patrick’s Athletic possible starting lineup:
Anang; McLaughlin, Redmond, Hoare, Breslin; Leavy, Lennon, McLelland; Elbouzedi, Keena, Power
Drogheda United possible starting lineup:
Dennison; Cooper, Keeley, Quinn; Lambe, Markey, Heeney, Kane; Davis, Aluwa; James-Taylor
We say: St Patrick’s Athletic 2-1 Drogheda United
St Patrick’s may be in lacklustre form overall, but their home record suggests that they are unlikely to lose this week at the very least.
Additionally, Drogheda have struggled on the road, and they could continue their string of poor away performances on Friday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a St Patrick’s Athletic win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw has a probability of 23.7% and a win for Drogheda United has a probability of 17.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick’s Athletic win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Drogheda United win it is 0-1 (6.5%).
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