Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Brasileiro clash between Fortaleza and Santos, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Castelao is set to host a six-pointer at the lower reaches of the Brasilero Serie A when Fortaleza welcome fellow-strugglers Santos on Thursday.
Laion will be desperate to stop the rot after a lengthy losing streak, while Peixe will be hoping to prove that their victory at the tail end of May was not a one off.
Match preview
Juan Pablo Vojvoda‘s Fortaleza have endured a tough start to their 2025 top-flight campaign, and coming into this clash on the back of five consecutive defeats, they will see this matchup as a golden opportunity to put points on the board.
To start June, Laion followed up a 1-0 Copa Libertadores loss against Racing Club with a 5-0 league thrashing at the hands of top-of-the-table Flamengo, and the score could have been worse if not for goalkeeper Joao Ricardo, who made eight saves across the 90.
That demolition was Vojvoda’s side’s fifth defeat of the Brasileiro season and left them 17th in the table with 10 points, though they only remain in the relegation zone behind 16th-placed Vitoria on goal difference.
Looking to get back on track in midweek, the hosts could take heart from the fact that they have performed better at Castelao than on the road, but after losing their last two home games, including when they were eliminated from the Copa Betano do Brasil by Retro on May 21, the difference is marginal.
That being said, three points could significantly change the complexion of Fortaleza’s season to date, and would be enough to push them up to 13th place ahead of Vitoria, Vasco de Gama, Internacional and Sao Paulo in a best-case scenario.
Meanwhile, Cleber Xavier’s Santos have been dire in the opening months of the season, and with seven defeats, two draws and only one win from their last 10 matches, this game against a fellow bottom-four club has taken on extra significance.
Peixe opened up June the way the ended May, with another loss, but considering that Botafogo scored the only goal of the game after Neymar had been sent off, they could see themselves as unlucky.
Walking away empty handed left Xavier’s men 18th in the table with a mere eight points to their name, two fewer than their opponents and two from safety.
Hoping to avoid falling further behind this week, fans of the visitors will be concerned that despite seeing their side win 1-0 on the road against Vitoria on May 25, they lost the prior six on the bounce, and have only avoided defeat in one of their away league clashes this year.
An unlikely triumph for Santos would be enough to lift them out of the drop zone and into 15th place depending on results elsewhere, but an eighth loss of the campaign could allow Juventude to drop them down to second last.
Fortaleza Brasileiro form:
Fortaleza form (all competitions):
Santos Brasileiro form:
Santos form (all competitions):
Team News
Fortaleza will be without midfielder Pedro Augusto on Thursday as he is suspended following his dismissal against Cruzeiro on May 26, and they are also likely to be missing fellow central player Lucas Sasha.
In their absence, Vojvoda should start a trio of Tomas Pochettino, Jose Welison, Emmanuel Martinez in the middle third.
Up top, striker Deyverson will be supported by Marinho and Lucca Prior Pimenta out wide, and the frontmen will be desperate to fire their side to an important three points.
As for Santos, Neymar has tested positive for COVID-19, but he will be unavailable anyway due to his red card last time out.
Xavier could turn to 20-year-old striker Deivid Washington to fill in for the captain, and the Chelsea loanee should be joined by Alvaro Barreal and Guilherme in the front three.
Elsewhere, midfielder Tomas Rincon was taken off with an injury against Botafogo, and Diego Pituca will take his place alongside Ze Rafael in a double pivot.
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Ricardo; Tinga, Kuscevic, Mancha, Mancuso; Pochettino, Welison, Martinez; Marinho, Deyverson, Pimenta
Santos possible starting lineup:
Brazao; Escobar, Ivaldo, Basso, Souza; Pituca, Rafael; Barreal, Rollheiser, Guilherme; Washington
We say: Fortaleza 1-0 Santos
Fortaleza may be in poor form overall, but they have been better on their own turf, while Santos have lost all but one of their away league games this year.
Additionally, the visitors will be missing Neymar in midweek, and they could struggle to pose a significant threat without their star.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Fortaleza win with a probability of 44.6%. A win for Santos has a probability of 27.72% and a draw has a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.72%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest Santos win is 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.92%).
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