Sports Mole previews Thursday’s MLS clash between New York City FC and Atlanta United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Still seeking their first away triumph of the 2025 Major League Soccer campaign, Atlanta United travel to Yankee Stadium to battle New York City FC on Thursday.
The Pigeons dropped below the Eastern Conference playoff line on goal difference despite coming back to claim a 2-2 result at Nashville SC, while the Five Stripes are 13th in the conference following a 2-0 loss to the New York Red Bulls.
Match preview
It was another slow start for New York City in their previous match, but fortunately they were able to recover in time to come away with a point against Nashville.
So far in 2025, they have conceded the opening goal in over half of their regular-season fixtures (9/17) but have managed to earn points on two of those previous three occasions.
With six victories at home in the competition this year, NYCFC have the joint-most in the league so far, but their only three home defeats have occurred at Yankee Stadium.
The last five home losses suffered by this team in the regular season took place in the Bronx, while they conceded three or more goal in three of those outings.
Pascal Jansen’s team have conceded five goals in their last two games, one more than they had allowed in their previous eight league fixtures combined before that.
Since entering MLS in 2015, the Boys in Blue have never lost a regular-season home fixture against Atlanta, although they have not beaten them in the Bronx since 2021 (1-0).
After an encouraging couple of matches for the Five Stripes near the tail end of May, the month concluded on a negative note.
Ronny Deila saw their two-match winning run in MLS end in their previous encounter in what was the first of a six-game road trip for them in this competition.
Atlanta have conceded multiple goals in every one of their away fixtures in the league this season, collecting just two points as the visitors.
In 2025, they have only been ahead in one of their away matches domestically and have yet to score an opening-half goal on the road this year.
They have lacked decisiveness in front of goal away from home, with only four of their 21 regular season goals coming as the visiting team.
The Five Stripes are unbeaten in their last five league meetings versus New York City but have only beaten them once away from home, claiming a 1-0 triumph at Yankee Stadium in the opening leg of their 2018 MLS Cup playoff tie.
New York City FC Major League Soccer form:
Atlanta United Major League Soccer form:
Team News
In their draw with Nashville, NYCFC were once again missing Kevin O’Toole and Malachi Jones with leg issues, while Jacob Arroyave did not feature because of a knee injury.
Hannes Wolf netted a second-half brace in that match, bringing his team back from a 2-0 deficit to claim a point against the Boys in Gold.
On the Atlanta side, Josh Cohen was sidelined against the Red Bulls due to a groin strain, Tristan Muyumba was suffering from muscle pain and Stian Rode Gregersen sat out with a hamstring problem.
Deila made one change to his starting 11 the last time out, with Pedro Amador coming into the fold in place of defender Ronald Hernandez.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Martins, Haak, Risa; Parks, Perea; Wolf, Moralez, Fernandez; Martinez
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Edwards, Williams, Abram; Lobjanidze, Thiare, Klich, Lennon; Miranchuk, Latte Lath; Almiron
We say: New York City FC 2-0 Atlanta United
The Five Stripes have the quality to give opposing defences trouble, but away from home, they have been lacking that killer pass to unlock a backline.
While the Boys in Blue have been inconsistent at Yankee Stadium this year, they have been resilient after setbacks, which is why we expect them to come away with maximum points on Thursday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
ID:574594:1false2false3false: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9719:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Atlanta United has a probability of 24.24% and a draw has a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Atlanta United win is 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.28%).
Previews by email
Click here to get Sports Mole‘s daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!