Sports Mole previews Wednesday’s COSAFA Cup clash between Eswatini and Tanzania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Eswatini go head to head with Tanzania on Wednesday at Free State Stadium in their final Group C fixture of the COSAFA Cup, fully aware that anything short of victory will draw the curtain on their campaign.
Seeded into one of two three-team brackets, the King’s Shield currently sit second after collecting a solitary point from their opener and must now edge past the already-eliminated Taifa Stars to secure a place in the knockouts.
Match preview
Eswatini find themselves walking a fine line once again in their pursuit of a knockout berth, having not progressed past the group stage since 2022.
With just two matches available to stake their claim for a top spot, Sihlangu Semnikati were forced to settle for a point in their opening fixture against table-toppers Madagascar.
It initially appeared that their hopes might unravel following a 29th-minute setback, but a thunderous second-half free-kick from Andy Junior Magagula breathed life back into their campaign.
Now three points adrift of Madagascar, who have already completed their group matches, Eswatini must see off Tanzania in order to draw level and then cross their fingers that the margin of victory will be enough to see them through.
The only previous meeting between these two sides came in the 2015 edition of the competition, with Eswatini clinching a 1-0 win, and while Zdravko Logarusic’s men will be eager to maintain that perfect record, they know that this time, style points could matter just as much as the result.
Back then, still competing under the name Swaziland, the King’s Shield were sent packing after a tie on points ended in heartbreak due to fewer goals scored than Madagascar, and they will be hoping to avoid a cruel deja vu by wrapping this one up with greater assurance.
It is worth noting that should Eswatini once again triumph by a slender 1-0 scoreline, COSAFA tiebreaker regulations would see their fate decided by a drawing of lots.
Tanzania, on the other hand, come into this fixture already resigned to another early exit, marking a repeat of their disappointing 2015 campaign where they also failed to make it out of the group.
The Taifa Stars bowed out that year without so much as a goal or point and risk finishing this edition in equally dismal fashion following a 1-0 defeat to Madagascar in the opening match – a result which stretched their winless run in all competitions to six matches, with five of those ending in defeat.
Nevertheless, the guest nation will aim to salvage some pride and bring the curtain down on this campaign with their heads held high, particularly after stepping in at short notice to replace Morocco following their late withdrawal.
Tanzania were only confirmed as participants on May 29, and this year marks their fourth appearance in the competition.
Eswatini COSAFA Cup form:
Eswatini form (all competitions):
Tanzania COSAFA Cup form:
Tanzania form (all competitions):
Team News
Eswatini emerged from their opener against Madagascar with no injury concerns, offering head coach Logarusic a full squad to choose from once again.
The Croatian tactician set up his team in a 4-2-3-1 formation for that game, and while that shape could be retained, there may be some reshuffling in attack as the coach looks to inject freshness and bite.
Felix Badenhorst and Sambulo Simelane are both pushing for a place in the starting eleven after coming off the bench.
Tanzania also finished their match unscathed, giving head coach Hemed Suleiman the luxury of rotating his squad in what is now a dead rubber for the East Africans.
With progression out of reach, the 54-year-old is expected to hand some fringe players their first minutes of the tournament, including Mishamo Daudi, Hussein Masaranga and Vedastus Masinde.
Eswatini possible starting lineup:
B. Dlamini; Thwala, Gamedze, Mabelesa, Masangane; Mkhonto, Sikhondze, Magagula, N. Dlamini; Badenhorst, Simelane
Tanzania possible starting lineup:
Juma; Mwaikenda, Nangu, Ame, Bausi; Hassan, Msanga, Stambuli; Pipino, Mwalimu, Salum
We say: Eswatini 1-0 Tanzania
While Eswatini are without a win in their last three outings, all of which have ended in draws, the motivation of a potential knockout spot should be enough to see them edge a tight contest against a Tanzanian side with little left to fight for.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Eswatini win with a probability of 37.64%. A draw has a probability of 32.4% and a win for Tanzania has a probability of 29.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (7.79%) and 2-1 (6.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 0-0 (15.95%), while for a Tanzania win it is 0-1 (13.51%).
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