The planned return of former Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila from self-imposed exile might perchance perchance shift political dynamics and complicate efforts to unravel escalating violence in the nation’s east, analysts screech.
Kabila this week launched his map to sprint away South Africa, the put he has been exiled since December 2023, and take care of the deteriorating safety scenario in eastern DRC.
His return comes amid accusations from President Felix Tshisekedi that Kabila helps the AFC/M23 rebels accountable for most up-to-date army advances, including shooting key cities Bukavu and Goma.
“After six years of total silence and given the worsening security situation, I have resolved to return home without delay to help find a solution,” Kabila wrote on Tuesday. “I have decided to begin with the eastern region, where there is danger at hand.”
In most up-to-date months, Kabila has been unusually outspoken concerning the DRC battle, breaking his customary silence since stepping down in 2019. In February, he authored an conception portion in South Africa’s Sunday Times, arguing the “DRC crisis needs more than a military solution”.
Political analyst Michael Tshibangu told RFI that Kabila’s most up-to-date activities note his intent to develop into more politically alive to.
“It is clear that he is stepping up to play a more active political role. But he has not put all his cards on the table. In typical Kabila fashion, he has maintained an element of mystery as to what his real political objectives are,” Tshibangu acknowledged.
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Meeting regional leaders
Kabila, who’s currently writing a thesis at the College of Johannesburg and spending time in Namibia and Zimbabwe, has reportedly held conferences with regional and worldwide figures enraged concerning the battle.
“Kabila met with representatives from Rwanda, Uganda and regional countries. He is trying to position himself as a credible alternative to President Felix Tshisekedi who is not currently enjoying good relations with DRC’s neighbours,” acknowledged Fred Bauma, of the Ebuteli be taught institute.
“However, he will really have to convince them of his good will and capacity to be part of the solution. But that’s far from being a done deal.”
Kabila has additionally reached out to Congolese opposition politicians exiled in Europe, holding conferences with opposition leaders Moise Katumbi and Claudel Lubaya in Addis Ababa closing December.
“He is attempting to restructure the political opposition in DRC and may well be positioning himself to take the lead role with the support of various parties,” acknowledged Bob Kabamba, political science lecturer at Liege College in Belgium.
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Tshibangu smartly-known that Kabila’s announcement to return comes at a politically sensitive time, as President Tshisekedi appears to be like weakened amid army setbacks.
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Huge territory
Kabila did not specify exactly when or the put he intends to attain in eastern DRC, prompting hypothesis and caution from observers.
“The east of DRC is such a vast territory and he did not say that he will go to the areas controlled by the AFC/M23 rebels,” acknowledged Tshibangu.
Tshisekedi has accused Kabila of sponsoring the AFC/M23 rebels, led by Corneille Nangaa, former president of DRC’s autonomous national electoral rate and an ally of Kabila.
Kabila strongly denies these accusations and has publicly challenged Tshisekedi to provide proof.
“This could explain why he prefers not to go to Kinshasa, the capital city, first. Unless the government gives him assurances that he will not be arrested,” Tshibangu acknowledged.
