Sports Mole previews Saturday’s Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Under-fire RB Leipzig boss Marco Rose will hope his side do not lose ground in the race for Champions League football when they host Mainz 05 at Red Bull Arena on Saturday in the Bundesliga.
The home team were held to a 2-2 stalemate by Heidenheim on February 23 in the league and are in sixth place with 38 points, while the visitors are in fifth place with the same number of points following their 2-0 victory against St Pauli last Saturday.
Match preview
© Imago
Leipzig deserve credit for managing to fight back from a two-goal deficit against Heidenheim, but fans will be concerned that they conceded twice after just 13 minutes of play against their 16th-placed opponents.
Die Roten Bullen did see past Wolfsburg 1-0 on Wednesday in the quarter-finals of the DFB-Pokal, creating four big chances while preventing the Wolves from producing any of their own.
Rose’s side have only conceded two goals in their past four Bundesliga matches, but they also failed to score on two occasions in that period, conceding 15 times in their previous six top-flight fixtures.
Leipzig are only one point from fourth-placed Freiburg, who occupy the league’s final Champions League qualification spot, but they have only collected eight points from the last 21 on offer in the top flight.
The hosts come into Saturday’s clash having drawn five, lost one and won one of their seven most recent games in the league, though they are unbeaten in their last six in the Bundesliga.
It should be noted that Leipzig are also undefeated in their past seven at home in all competitions – winning five – and have triumphed in 11, drawn six and succumbed to defeat in just one of their last 18 at Red Bull Arena.
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Opponents Mainz struggled for large periods against St Pauli, and their two second-half goals were the only big chances they created during the course of the game.
Karnevalsverein have now won three of their past five games 2-0, and though they drew and lost one in that time, they also kept four clean sheets.
Only Bayern Munich and Freiburg have picked up more points than the visitors have in their last five league games (10), and their record of 24 goals conceded makes them the top flight’s second-best defensive team.
Boss Bo Henriksen will hope to avoid a repeat of the reverse fixture against Leipzig when his side were beaten 2-0 on October 19, a game in which they failed to create a single big chance.
Mainz beat Heidenheim 2-0 in their most recent away game on February 16, but they were beaten in their prior three matches on the road by a cumulative score of 4-1.
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form:
RB Leipzig form (all competitions):
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:
Team News
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Leipzig are unfortunately dealing with several injury concerns, with midfielders Christoph Baumgartner, Forzan Assan Ouedraogo and Xaver Schlager, as well as defender Benjamin Henrichs, likely to miss out.
Centre-back Willi Orban may be stationed in a back three alongside Lutsharel Geertruida and Castello Lukeba, while Amadou Haidara and Kevin Kampl could play in a double pivot.
In attack, Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will be supported by Xavi Simons considering Antonio Nusa and Yussuf Poulsen are unavailable.
As for Mainz, they face a dilemma in the backline given centre-back Dominik Kohr is suspended, while Stefan Bell is not scheduled to return until late March due to a hamstring injury.
Their absences will almost certainly lead Henriksen to start Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz and Andreas Hanche-Olsen in defence, and they may be flanked by wing-backs Anthony Caci and Silvan Widmer given Philipp Mwene has been ruled out.
Striker Jonathan Burkardt is the most probable candidate to feature up front, with Paul Nebel and Jae-sung Lee likely to support him.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Geertruida, Orban, Lukeba; Baku, Haidara, Kampl, Raum; Simons; Sesko, Openda
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Jenz, Hanche-Olsen; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Widmer; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
We say: RB Leipzig 1-1 Mainz 05
Leipzig have rarely been beaten at home, and it would be surprising if they lost on Saturday given their strong record at Red Bull Arena.
However, after a midweek match in the DFB-Pokal, Mainz could be more energetic and will feel they can at least avoid defeat against their hosts.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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